ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center on Friday continues to monitor three areas for potential tropical development in the next two to seven days.
The Pinpoint Weather Team is keeping a closer eye on one area highlighted that has a medium chance (40%) to develop in the next seven days.
Long-range models suggest a broad area of low pressure trying to form early to midweek next week in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Uncertainty continues between the GFS and EURO models, however.
The GFS predicts a quicker and stronger system developing in the Gulf of Mexico by mid-to-late next week, moving toward the northeastern and eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, the EURO ensemble blend suggests a weaker system in the Gulf with a westward trend.
While storm formation isn’t set in stone, the trend suggests there could be heavy rain for the Caribbean, areas across Mexico and south Florida by late next week.
However, until there’s actually something to track, models will continue to shift around and uncertainty will remain high.
What’s uncertain includes the steering currents at that time, if/when something develops, intensity, timing of entry into the Gulf of Mexico and the location of the center when it enters the Gulf.
What we know right now is that there’s nothing to track, so models can’t predict anything in terms of the strength or path.
We expect this will be a slow-developing system. Everyone along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on the forecast as the forecast will continue to evolve over the next several days.
Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges provides the latest information about everything happening in the tropics.
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